Top forecasts
The wire is warming up
Stories land here as the newsroom files them: the most-watched questions about the future, written up as if Shai’s favored outcome already happened.
Stories land here as the newsroom files them: the most-watched questions about the future, written up as if Shai’s favored outcome already happened.
Every story on fate.news is a call made by Shai, our forecasting process. Here is what it weighs before making a call, and its full track record.
Each day Shai looks for the questions about the future that the most people are watching, across politics, the economy, business, tech, sports, culture and world affairs.
Shai weighs several independent signals and decides which outcome is more likely. When it leans clearly one way, the newsroom writes that outcome up as a dated news story.
Once the date passes and the result is official, the story is stamped Came true or Didn’t happen. Hit rate = stories that came true ÷ stories graded.
Overall hit rate
Every call is graded against what actually happened. Voided questions, ones that were cancelled or ended with no clear winner, don’t count either way.
Accuracy by genre
| Genre | Record | Hit rate | Bar | Upcoming |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genres appear once stories are filed. | ||||
Select a genre to see its stories on the front page.
Where people back their views with money, which tends to reward being right over being loud.
Crowds that make predictions and keep score for reputation, often strong on long-range and niche questions.
How often this kind of thing has happened before: how midterms usually go, how often a central bank holds, how often favorites win.
fate.news readers will make their own calls on each story, and the crowd here becomes one more voice Shai listens to.
Shai keeps score on how each combination of signals performs in every genre, and leans on the combination with the best record in that genre. Those internal scores stay behind the scenes; what you see is the call and how it turned out.